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1994-10-25
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Document 2306
DOCN M94A2306
TI AIDS/HIV projection and optimal intervention strategies.
DT 9412
AU McGrail LM; Moy EV
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):334 (abstract no. PC0269). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370269
AB OBJECTIVE: To develop, for any geographical area, a method of
calculating the optimal allocations of resources for the prevention of
the spread of HIV. METHODS: Using easily understood discrete-time
compartment models, projection of the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is
discussed. The concept of mathematically modeling interventions in the
epidemic is introduced. Intervention models are combined with epidemic
models in such a way that interventions can be viewed as controls of the
epidemic. Discrete-time optimal-control theory is reviewed and used to
calculate an optimal distribution of interventions for a given criterion
and this distribution is referred to as an optimal intervention
strategy. Example problems are formulated and solved with an eye to
suggesting applications of this theory. RESULTS: Proper selection of
optimality criteria enables, for a given geographic area, calculation
of: the optimal distribution of intervention programs for a given total
cost of interventions; or the optimal total cost and distribution of
interventions to minimize the total cost, or total health care cost, of
the epidemic; or the optimal total cost and distribution of
interventions to reduce the loss of human life to a certain level.
Applications to the calculation of optimal vaccination or cure
administration schedules are also suggested. DISCUSSION: The method
presented can be adapted to unexpected contingencies and can be combined
with economic models and models of other diseases to form more
comprehensive policy recommendations.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*PREVENTION & CONTROL
Cost-Benefit Analysis Disease Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA
Economics Forecasting Health Care Rationing/*ECONOMICS Health
Policy/ECONOMICS Human HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*PREVENTION &
CONTROL HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS Models, Statistical MEETING
ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).